This weekend, we have a 13-fight PPV card in Phoenix, Arizona. This is the first ever UFC on large ESPN card and DK has some decent competitions for us with this Sunday card. The main GPP is a $10 buy and $20k goes to 1st place, and there’ll be $100k in total prizes. They also have a new Qualifier for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for this final contest and they will compete for a $50k first location price and $175k will be spread out between all 100 entries that qualify. Those Qualifier only competitions can be real bankroll suckers so be careful chasing those too hard. I’ll likely stick to the very best GPP this week and throw 50 or so entries at that $20k prize. I will also be posting H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a fantastic quantity of drama into money games. With that said, let’s get into some plays I like as well as my fade of the week:
Money Game play of this week — Vicente Luque ($9,400)
Vicente Luque is your safest play on the background, in my view. I believe he’ll be the fighter anywhere this battle moves, and he must dominate. I enjoy locking that win in my money game and I think he’s a fantastic chance at getting 10x his $9.4k salary. I do expect him to become popular in tournaments so if you would like to fade the possession there and attempt to be contrarian, I’d definitely want some Luque investment in money games. Barberena is tough so he can continue all 3 rounds and when he can then Luque could score from the 80s which will not win any GPPs. However, we could use an ~80-point triumph in cash games since we only need to beat half the field unlike the tournaments.
GPP drama of the week — Cain Velasquez ($9,000)
Cain Velasquez is my GPP drama of the week due to the chances. A bit more than a week ago he had been a -255 favorite and that’s what led to his elevated $95 price tag. Now he is just -155 and all the worth is currently on Ngannou in his $7.2k price label. I expect Ngannou to be the highest owned fighter on the card and when Cain wins then he’ll kill off close to half the field. Also, if Cain wins he is probably scoring over 100-points. I expect his ownership to really go down the longer his betting line reduces and that’s what makes him a great GPP play. He does have a 0-point flooring, therefore I don’t care for him as much in money game, but for GPPs we need boom or bust to try to reach this 1st place prize.
Underdog play of the week — Andre Fili ($7,400)
Andre Fili is my favourite dog of this week. He is $1,400 cheaper than Myles Jury on DraftKings, however he is just a +125 underdog. I think he has a fantastic chance of winning this fight and I am picking him to receive his hands raised. I anticipate this to be a very close battle, but I believe Fili will be the fighter striking in the greater pace and that is precisely what I think do it for him to the judges’ scorecards. I don’t see Fili with 100+ point upside but we don’t really need that in his $7.4k price label. I believe he’s a good shot at getting at least 10x, so he’s playable in all formats for me personally.
Fade of the week — Andrea Lee ($8,900)
Andrea Lee is my fade of this week. Not because I think she will lose, but I believe have difficulty seeing her on the 20k lineup at her salary. I enjoy the 9k range much more than her and all of them have higher ceilings with their grappling-based game programs. Andrea Lee scored well within her UFC introduction, but this is because she didn’t use grappling there. I really don’t see her doing this in this match because I think Evans-Smith gets the edge on the ground and she must be the one searching for takedowns. If Lee is going to win this fight, then she’s going to have to get it done on the toes and I really don’t see her having a high ceiling with no finish. The sole reason to use her is because she is going to be super low possessed, and it will make your lineup contrarian, but I wouldn’t advise it.
Thank you for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every fight about the card and provide my complete DraftKings evaluation, as well as all of my pick predictions, then you can find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are available at that link as well. I am 57-34 to get +188.13un (+$18,813) since May 19th on Premium Plays)
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