This weekend, we’ve got a 12-fight PPV card in Brazil. DraftKings has some solid competitions for us to win a lot of money from this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $30k goes to 1st place with a total of $150k being paid out. They also have a new Qualifier only contest for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that competition and they’ll compete for a $50k first location price and $175k will probably be spread out between all 100 entries that match. I will try to get my 3rd chair this week to maximum it if I could. Those Qualifier only competitions can be actual bankroll suckers, so be cautious chasing those too hard. I will probably stick to the top GPP this week and throw a handful of entries at the $30k prize, and then I will probably have a few shots at the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs throughout the week to receive a fantastic quantity of drama into cash games.
With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I enjoy this week along with my fade of this week:
Cash Game play of this week — Raoni Barcelos — $9,600
Barcelos is your money game play for me . On the betting line he’s now -1100 and he is -206 to win ITD. He’s also +110 to win in round 1. He’s my favourite play on the board, the sole issue is being able to afford him. For cash games, I can for sure fit him in. For GPPs it will be more difficult to have 6 wins paying up for his huge salary, but I enjoy him there as well. I just won’t make it a priority to get him into those championship lineups, but money I need that -1100 in my team for a safe win.
GPP play of the week — Ryan Spann — $8,800
This is a battle I like to target. My favorite drama is Spann but Little Nog is in play also. The line for FDGTD is -280 and that I think Spann can win via KO or sub, and it could be 1st round too. I think he can compete with the 9k fighters and that he is a guy that kicks them off the 1st location lineup. Small Nog is the better fighter however and Spann does not have a fantastic chin , so that I could see Nog winning via KO. I really don’t think that’s probably, so I won’t be heavy on him, but he can make my player pool. Spann is a guy I think is in play in all formats and I will try to be overweight on him. It is more of a fade on Little Nog at this point, but I really don’t see this battle going all 3-rounds and that I enjoy Spann to find the win.
Underdog play of this week — Alex Volkanovski — $7,800
On DraftKings, I expect Volkanovski to be very chalky and rightfully so. He is my preferred play in this fight and his previous scores pretty much make him a man you can’t fade if you’re MMEing. I don’t see him having the ceiling he did in his past struggles vs Aldo, but these numbers are difficult to dismiss. His 6 UFC wins have each totaled over 100 DK points. From most recent fight to his debut, all these are his DK scores: 107, 100, 129, 116, 107, and 115. That’s pretty amazing. I think he’s a fantastic chance of upsetting the legend and maybe getting an end for another high score. I really don’t think Aldo is a great matchup for him to demonstrate that 100+ stage ceiling however at $7.8k we do not require that many points. I think IF he wins, he easily pays off that wages.
Fade of the week — Luana Carolina — $8,900
There’s absolutely no way I’m paying $8.9k for Carolina. She is the fade of this week and whether or not it burns me afterward it disturbs me. I don’t see that being true though even when she wins. I expect this fight to stay standing and that I really don’t see her striking at a speed to pay off her cost without obtaining a finish. I don’t believe she gets that complete so even if she wins I believe she scores closer to 75 DK points and in her salary which won’t end up to the optimal lineup. Even if I make 150 lineups this week I will not get any vulnerability to Carolina.
Thank you for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my own full-card breakdown where I breakdown every struggle about the card and give my complete DraftKings evaluation, in Addition to all of my pick predictions, then you’ll find that for just $7.99 on this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link too. I am 76-45 to get +260.95 (+$26,095) because May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)